Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates similar to some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some type of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the point that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly raised percentage. Many table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps which might be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, bsports world can never be overcome over time.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. This is due to most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that most bettors do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For example, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that may help you in the long run. First of all, the best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 and even 10. The difference between the house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points less than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to several units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.