Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates similar to one of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some sort of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find the majority of these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the point that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The house edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Many table games and slots provide a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps which can be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long term.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long run. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly happy to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. For the reason that most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that most bettors do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For example, if you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. link red88 is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that may help you in the long run. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points lower than all three of these bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with several units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.