Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates much like probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some type of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the fact that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. Lots of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps which can be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. For the reason that most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one parlay per week. In football this implies a minimum of 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous amount of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For instance, if you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you consider I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that may help you in the end. First of Dabet , the best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 as well as 10. The difference between the house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of these bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.