Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates similar to some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some form of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that you will find the majority of these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the fact that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Many table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps that can be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slots that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. Simply because most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most of all, it is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one parlay per week. In SV66 implies at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For instance, in case you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you in the end. First of all, the very best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. Invest the a glance at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 as well as 10. The difference between your house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points lower than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with several units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.