Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some type of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. A great deal of table games and slots provide a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. There are also steps that could be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. This is due to most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. bj88 is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most of all, it is my experience that a lot of bettors usually do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with such a high house edge. For example, if you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will assist you in the end. First of all, the very best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you need to understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 as well as 10. The difference between your house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points lower than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.