Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates much like probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some kind of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
Win55 on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Plenty of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a couple of dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. There are also steps that could be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly happy to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. This is due to most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that most bettors do not place just one parlay per week. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For instance, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you in the long term. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. The difference between the house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are likely to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points less than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.