Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates much like one of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of working with some type of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find the majority of these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. 8us are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the point that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Many table games and slots provide a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. Additionally, there are steps that may be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. This is due to most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For example, in case you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will assist you in the long term. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 as well as 10. The difference between the house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of these bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.